Monday, June 30, 2008

Spam Email of the Day

This one's about oil and ANWAR. I'm going to start cataloging some of these. My response is at the end, again. Also, I can't get the images attached to the emails to send for some reason. If anyone is really curious, I can forward the email. It basically is a few photos of Alaska and a few maps.

THIS IS VERY GOOD..I THINK IT EXPLAINS THE SITUATION VERY WELL. BE SURE TO GO ALL THE WAY TO THE END..SOMEHOW WE MUST TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK---START BY DISTRIBUTING THIS TO ALL YOU KNOW

Subject: Good reading - ANWR
FIRST… do you know what ANWR is?

ANWR = Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

….

Now… A comparison

And some perspective…

NOTE WHERE THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AREA IS…
(it's in the "ANWR Coastal Plain")

THIS IS WHAT THE DEMOCRATS, LIBERALS AND "GREENS" SHOW YOU WHEN THEY TALK ABOUT ANWR
…and they are right… these ARE photographs of ANWR

ISN'T ANWR BEAUTIFUL? WHY SHOULD WE DRILL HERE (AND DESTROY) THIS BEAUTIFUL PLACE?



WELL… THAT'S NOT EXACTLY THE TRUTH

Do you remember the map?

The map showed that the proposed drilling area is in the ANWR Coastal Plain

Do those photographs look like a coastal plain to you?

WHAT'S GOING ON HERE?

….
…..
…..
…..
…..
…..
….


THE ANSWER IS SIMPLE…

THAT IS NOT WHERE THEY ARE WANTING TO DRILL!

THIS IS WHAT THE PROPOSED EXPLORATION AREA ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE IN THE WINTER

AND THIS IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE IN THE SUMMER

HERE ARE A COUPLE SCREEN SHOTS FROM GOOGLE EARTH

AS YOU CAN SEE, THE AREA WHERE THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT DRILLING IS A BARREN WASTELAND.

OH… AND THEY SAY THAT THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WILDLIFE…

HERE IS A PHOTO (SHOT DURING THE SUMMER) OF THE
"DEPLETED WILDLIFE" SITUATION CREATED BY DRILLING AROUND PRUDHOE BAY *…
DON'T YOU THINK THAT THE CARIBOU REALLY HATE THAT DRILLING?

HERE'S THAT SAME SPOT DURING THE WINTER.

HEY, THIS BEAR SEEMS TO REALLY HATE THE PIPELINE NEAR PRUDHOE BAY *…

*The Prudhoe bay area accounts for 17% of U.S. domestic oil production

NOW, WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THE DEMOCRATS ARELYING ABOUT ANWR?

REMEMBER WHEN AL GORE SAID THAT
THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD WORK TO ARTIFICIALLY RAISE GAS PRICES
TO $5.00 A GALLON?

WELL…
AL GORE AND HIS FELLOW DEMOCRATS HAVE ALMOST REACHED THEIR GOAL!

NOW THAT YOU KNOW THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN LYING,
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT?

YOU CAN START BY FORWARDING THIS TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW…
SO THAT THEY WILL KNOW THE TRUTH.

And here's my response:

I agree on drilling ANWAR, but if you think that drilling ANWAR will bring back 99 cents a gallon, think again.

Drilling in northern Alaska is some of the harshest conditions on earth (read: expensive to drill).

It will take years to explore for and tap oil (read: 10 years at least before any new oil).

Drilling for oil is risky business. In the old days, only one out of every 7 wildcat wells struck oil. Even with better technology, risks still abound. Look up Mukluk. It was a dry hole that BP drilled right next to ANWAR that cost a BILLION+ dollars back in 1980 (back when the dollar was worth more than the paper it was printed on). (Read: no guarantee of any oil at all).

US oil production peaked in 1970 and has declined every year since. Texas, with almost no restrictions to drilling, peaked about the same time. Energy Independence is nothing more that a politician's lie.

The best analysis I've seen puts probable production at around half a million barrels a day. Global demand is 85 million barrels per day or so. Even if we were to find another huge field, it's doubtful it would replace the decline of existing supergiant fields like Cantarelle in Mexico or Ghawar in Saudi Arabia. Remember, America once had more oil than than all of Saudi Arabia, but used most of it up over a period of time.

Listen, I've worked in the oil industry and there just are no easy answers anymore. Don't blame "the speculators." Don't blame "Big Oil."

If you want to read up on some fantastic research and talk about the current and future energy challenges, I highly recommend reading The Oil Drum (www.TheOilDrum.com). A very technically-oriented site that covers everything you might want to know.

Take care,
Clay


If I were thinking, I would have attached this chart.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

The Difference...

Asked what the gravest threat to the economy is:

McCain:
"Radical Islamic extremism."

Obama:
"Our energy policy ... demand is clearly outstripping supply."

One gets it. The other doesn't even try.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

The start of a real energy plan for this country

I blog about Oil a lot because it's what runs the economy. I don't have anything directly to do with the oil industry anymore, but it's the foundation of American wealth. Read The Prize to know what I mean.

Four dollar a gallon gas is getting a lot of people steamed and I don't see many worthwhile ideas out there, so I'll throw out a few I think will work. All are based off current technology and have the most bang for the buck.

Here is what I think is the first step towards a real solution on energy. A lot of it comes from The Oil Drum and a local light rail proponent named Alan Drake.

First off, what we're dealing with is a result of supply and demand. Quit blaming the speculators or environmentalists. The crisis isn't going to go away anytime soon, either. Get used to it. 99 cents a gallon is never coming back. Prepare for a long, painful slog. There are no golden bullets that will solve the problem, but there might just be a few silver BB's out there. UPDATE 2- I think the market WILL come up with a solution. You just might not like it. Therefore, we should try and make the transition on our terms instead of having it forced on us. You have the luxury of complaining when there are options. Don't expect too much sympathy when we run out of options.

My first suggestion is develop a worldwide database of inventory and consumption data. Real time, streamed over the internet, if possible. Most oil pricing is done by the EIA calling up refineries around the US and figuring out what % output they are operating at, coupled with their inventories. Let's replicate this on a global scale. Markets thrive on information. More information will smooth out the peaks and the valleys. This will take a lot hand holding because, while everyone wants the data, but nobody want to reveal anything potentially embarrassing or giving a competitor an advantage.

Second, go electric rail. Electric, long haul freight can replace millions of barrels a day we burn on running 18-wheelers. Also, electrified light rail (like streetcars) should be built in a massive infrastructure build out akin to the original interstate system. An integrated system of streetcars and "inter-urbs" would cut demand by millions of barrels. Also, it's established technology that can be built surprisingly quickly (look at the streetcar boom in New Orleans and elsewhere during 1900-1910). Make the federal/local contribution level 90/10 for light rail and 50/50 (or 40/60, etc.) for highways and watch the transformation take place. UPDATE 2- Here is a white paper written by Alan Drake breaking the problem down.

Shrink cities. Eliminate mortgage write-offs for suburban houses too far away from the core. Turn old suburbs back into local farms for city.

Allow people to avoid rush hour traffic. A Prius gets 0 MPG stopped in bumper to bumper traffic. Wherever possible, allow 4 day work weeks. Encourage businesses to allow more workers to telecommute, at least on some days. You'd be surprised how many jobs could be shifted that way. You'd save another million barrels a day just keeping people from getting stuck in traffic.

Revamp refineries to process heavy crude. (Already happening in Texas and new refinery in North Dakota). Most of the new production will be heavy, sour crude instead of light, sweet crude.

NO MORE WARS! Nothing will drive up the price of oil like another resource war. Iraq has totally discredited the idea you can use the military to acquire more oil. There are too many things that can go wrong and oil supplies are too easy to sabotage (Saddam injected fuel oil into Rumalia to screw up US).

When it comes to ANWAR and the Outer Continental Shelf, drill them as late as possible, while still having existing infrastructure there to support it. Wait too long, must rebuild Trans Alaskan Pipeline System. Too soon is a complete waste. Should be used as "methadone" to get us off of our addiction, instead of feeding the habit. It will also shut up the "drill ANWAR and solve all our gas problems" buffoons.

My favorite idea: $1 a gallon gas tax, but $0.75 goes back in the form of a tax break. The remaining $0.25 is for electric rail and other mitigation strategies. $1 a gallon for 1,000 gallons a household (diesel + gasoline). Bump it up $0.33 cents every 4 months, with a $250 rebate sent each boost. Numbers are a bit rough, but I think they're in the ballpark. Encourage people to take the initiative. Encourage individual responsibility.

All of this is to be done with established technology. No "golden bullets." Put money into research, but there's no way to tell exactly what might come out. Remember, Penicillin was an accidental discovery. The first diesel engines were novelties that ran on peanut oil. No way to tell exactly what might happen. Best course forward is to encourage scientific thinking in everyone, not just scientists and engineers, but laypeople as well. Who knows? We might have a breakthrough in cold fusion or zero point energy. Don't bet the farm on it, though. The Manhattan Project was the exception, not the rule.

NOTE- I plan on adding links and fleshing this out later. It took a while to write, so I'll just throw it out there and worry about backing up specific points later. If you think part of it's bullshit, let me know and I'll get around to that specific part sooner rather than later.

UPDATE 1- Oops. Forgot to mention insulation of homes. $2500 to add insulation to an existing home has a ridiculously low payback period (2-3 years) and is your most bang for your buck.

"Dumbass thing I got forwarded at work" of the day

Have you ever heard that a dog "knows" when an earthquake is about to hit?

Have you ever heard that a dog can "sense" when a tornado is stirring up, even 20 miles away?


Do you remember hearing that before the December tsunami struck Southeast Asia, dogs started running frantically away from the seashore, at breakneck speed?


Do you know that dogs can detect cancer and other serious illnesses and danger of fire?


Somehow they always know when they can 'go for a ride' before you even ask and how do those dogs and cats get home from hundreds of miles away?


I'm a firm believer that animals - and especially dogs - have keen insights into the Truth.


And you can't tell me that dogs can't sense a potentially terrible disaster well in advance


Simply said, a dog just KNOWS when something isn't right...when impending doom is upon us..they'll always try to warn us.... !!




I don't like to let these things slide, so here is my response:

We've got a war in Iraq that's costing $4,000 a second...

We're paying for it by borrowing money from the Chinese that we'll have to pay back later (with interest)...

Gas prices are $4 a gallon, on their way to $8 a gallon by next summer without any semblance of an energy policy in place...

Our infrastructure, from bridges in Minnesota to levees in New Orleans and Iowa, is falling apart...

And you're going to make your voting decision based off an emailed photo of a dog peeing...

Both candidates have spent their lives in public service. Read their speeches. Find out their positions on the issues. Vote for the best man for the job.

Got an apology and a few congrats from others on the Reply All list. Just trying the kill the next "Obama is a gay atheist muslim terrorist" email before it gets started...

Lots of guey black stuff-related news

China is reducing fuel subsidies. This is huge. State-owned companies own the refineries and China sets the fuel prices. Recently, there have been spot shortages of fuel (especially diesel) all over the country. It's also costing the Chinese government a boatload of money and while they can afford it now, thanks to their booming economy, they couldn't keep up the pace for too much longer. Everyone was expecting it to happen after the Olympics, so it's shocking to see it this early. It's only an 8% hike, though, so don't expect to see relief just yet.

Oil Majors reentering Iraq. Exxon-Mobil, BP, Total, and Shell take the first step towards taking their holdings that were nationalized 50+ years ago back. Chevron also gets in on the action. The NY Times also had an article along these lines, too, quoting an unnamed Exxon-Mobil official saying something along the lines of, "Now things are back to the natural order." Just to throw tidbit out there: there are a few geologists that think Iraq might have more oil in place than Saudi Arabia.

Shell Bonga attacked, shut in. In what appears to be a somewhat organized attack, Shell Bonga FPSO was shot up on a raid by MEND. It's horrifying to hear that a platform got shot up. Like the Sean Connery said in the Hunt for Red October, "Ryan, be careful what you shoot at. Most things in here don't react too well to bullets. " There's flammable gases, high voltage lines, explosive liquids, and (this from a friend who worked at the Jade Platform) the plaforms are surrounded by hundreds of sharks! My friend watched a hammerhead attack and eat a barracuda once. Oh yeah, and a subcontractor for Chevron (US Ex-Pat) was abducted on the way out.

On a side note, Bonga has an interesting history. The hull was built in South Korea and the outfitting was done in the U.K. Normally hulls are outfitted in Norway, Louisiana/Texas or a few other select locales. I forget the guy's name, but someone convinced Shell to do the topsides in a smallish port in England. Well, the port wasn't big enough and the workers were constantly on strike or working 4 hour days. Shell got a minimum amount of work done in England and then completed the FPSO on site by flying workers for the from various countries. As a sidenote, the industry terminology for Western workers overseas is Ex-Pats, while Filipino welders and pipe fitters and the like (they tend to be very good and willing to work all over the world) are referred to as TCN's (Third Country Nationals). The platform got finished for triple the initial estimate and Shell lucked out with the rising oil prices and Bonga didn't end up as "Shell's Thunderhorse." Oh yeah, and the guy who fleeced Shell got knighthood.

UPDATE- The Oil Drum has more analysis of the Bonga attack. It's a very big deal. Here's a report from a summary investigation by the Nigerian government. Sounds like it could have had serious inside help from the Nigerian military. And now Bonga has restarted.

Speaking of Thunderhorse, BP Thunderhorse produces first oil. Three years and at least a billion dollars over budget, the first well comes online. They're bringing the wells on relatively slowly, but they'll eventually hit the nameplate capacity of 250,000 barrels a day. At the current price of oil, they should be able to pay off the construction in a matter of months.

Thunderhorse had problems with subsea infrastructure, high pressure, and a design flaw that was revealed by Hurricane Dennis:

Photo taken by a Coastie helping BP. The ship on the left is a giant drillship. The little boat on the right is a crew boat that's probably 120 feet long or so.

The platform came within half a degree or so of capsizing. It had to be towed back to shore to complete the repairs after that incident.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Carrolton portion of St. Charles Line Restarting June 22nd


Heard through the grapevine that June 22 is the official date. Yipee!

UPDATE- It's official!

Monday, June 16, 2008

The Weekend of the Book

I've finally freed up enough time to get back into free reading. This weekend, I finished Walker Percy's "Love in the Ruins," Ayn Rand's "Anthem," and Peter Hernon's "A Terrible Thunder."

Walker Percy's book is a classic and I've now read my first Ayn Rand Book. The last one is from what James Lowen likes to call "the memory hole" (the disappearance of the recent past). It's very hard to find good histories of things that happened 20 years or so ago.

A Terrible Thunder is all about the Mark Essex shooting. I've heard a little bit it growing up, but always in muffled voices. It's one of those things, though, that people would rather forget. I've heard rumors that some bookstores refuse to carry the book.

Here's a video that includes some footage of the event (including NOPD shooting at a brick wall and hitting each other with the ricochets):

A lot of people (some veteran NOPD cops included) swear that the were 1 or 2 other snipers, despite plenty of evidence to the contrary.

The book itself does a nice job of sorting through the chaos. The whole incident is almost unreal.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Follow ups to previous posts

My Super Sweet 16 Lands Daddy in Slammer. Well, his legal troubles have continued. Damn near getting into a gun fight with a court clerk trying to serve your subpoena isn't going to help matters. Here's an update from ABC News.

Tony Amato being run out of KCMO Schools? He ended up resigning. He was messing with certain people's 'cash flows.' I honestly feel for him. He isn't completely flawless (here's an article critical of his tenures at various school boards), but he was honest, hardworking, and was unafraid to turn over applecarts. I with him the best in whatever his next endeavor is. He'd make a great successor to Vallas when he moves on. He knows the system, but after his horrible experience he had in NOPS, I doubt he'd want the job.

UPDATE- Corps Shenanigans. Looks like the MWI pumps are back in the news. The Army's Inspector General cleared the purchasing process on the pumps. Maybe they should get these auditors on the case. Also doesn't answer why the operators are STILL worried about the pumps leaking hydraulic fluid.

Many moons ago, the Times-Pic published an unsourced article alleging bribery involving Una Anderson. Una was up by double digits in the polls before the article. She ended up losing by a slim majority. A lot of voters who liked Una voted for her opponent (just to be on the safe side) because of the article. I'll admit that I'm among that group of voters. I have to say, though, that I haven't heard a peep out of Letten in regards to Una. Hmmm... I wonder if the Times-Picayune editorial staff could use some investigating and dragonslaying.

Friday, June 6, 2008

Lifestyles of the Famous and Subprime...

One of the interesting things about the subprime mess is who is being affected and the ripple effects. I've noticed a few interesting people have been snagged...

...like Congresscritter Laura Richardson. Anyone wonder how that will figure into her upcoming votes?

How can a brother make it on $120 million?

Evander Holyfield is also having some troubles.

Look who could use a visit from the Publisher's Clearinghouse:

Ed McMahon gets in a jam. An expensive young trophy wife and contributed to his financial troubles. I guess those trophy wives get expensive... James Howard Kunstler would have no sympathy for one of the people who sold America on the religion of unearned wealth.

Thursday, June 5, 2008

Obama's Nomination Speech in Minnesota

Finally got around to watching Obama's nomination speech.

I skipped the first quarter or so. Just a bunch of Thank you's. Don't skip too far ahead, though, because the part on Iraq is spot on. Liked the references to the Republican convention in Minnesota. Then it gets a little dull and ends on an exclamation point.

UPDATE- Oh, and I would post McCain's 'green jello' speech for comparison, but somebody keeps taking the videos down from You-Tube.