Sunday, April 20, 2014

Courtwatch, BP Edition, Part 3

Four years ago, what we'd come to call the Macondo blowout / Deepwater Horizon / the BP Oil Spill occurred. The Atlantic / 4 Years Ago, Photo Essay

Previous Edition: Part 2

First off, a quick conviction update: A BP manager who was in charge of spill response has plead guilty to insider trading charges. His was an obvious crime. You've got to be pretty blatant to get the SEC to come after you. He sold all of his shares very early on after the well blew out and all of his family's shares. That's a little too flagrant for the SEC to give you a pass.

Probably the phase with the most variability is the "how much spilled" phase (NY Times: In BP Trial, the Amount of Oil Lost Is at Issue - Nice summary). Note that many of the fines are on a per barrel basis, so, if more barrels were spilled, bigger fines. I believe it's $1,100/barrel under regular negligence and, if gross negligence is found, it's over $4,000/barrel. By fudging their estimates, it's argued BP can best limit their total liability. Here's more on the sparing over the spillrate estimates.

Before I go into what I viewed in the courtroom, I'll point out this very important factoid: Actually, they kinda DID have a meter. During the last stages of the blowout, a capping stack with 2 orifices of known size were fitted to the top of the well. One of the two orifices was fitted with a pressure gauge that discharged directly to the GoM while the other was routed to the collection system of the Disco Enterprise & Q4000. There was a pretty good gauge of how quickly the well was flowing at that point in time (~50,000 barrels/day).

The person (Dr. Tom Hunter) that noticed the lineup and made the initial calculations was actually a nuclear weapons engineer. He had a PhD from Wisconsin and held roughly the same position as Dr. Oppenheimer had. He worked for Sandia National Labs and was a part of a taskforce led by DOE to fix the blowout and monitor BP's actions. I actually got to sit in the courtroom for some of his testimony. He retired about midway through the blowout and decided to stick around to help make things right, despite being paid by nobody to do so. His testimony was pretty amazing. If a lawyer could sit down and dream up the most reputable witness possible, Dr. Hunter would be high on that list. He definitely spoke like an engineer (he wasn't very polished and kinda stuttered), but his command of the numbers was firm. His testimony cemented the government's position pretty well early on in the spillrate phase of the trial. BP didn't spend a lot of time cross examining him and was probably just glad he was off the stand. I would have liked to see BP try impugning his integrity, after all, Dr. Hunter was just in charge of making sure US Nuclear Weapons go boom. The best testimate to Dr. Hunter's integrity is that his calculation, which was made with not much more than a 4-function calculator in the field while the blowout was going on, was never questioned by anyone, even scientists and engineers on BP's dime.

Here's the final government report on the spillrate:
Federal Government Report on Oil Spill [PDF]
For reference: ~4.9 million barrels total
Note that the government narrowed in on a single number which was then subjected to peer review and was published far in advance of the trial. For a ballpark figure, it amounted to an average of ~50,000 barrels/day.

In the leadup to the spillrate portion of the trial, BP played a little dance with the numbers. They constantly complained that the government's figure was too high, but not saying by how much nor would they expose their own reports until just before the spillrate portion of the trial. Off the top of my head, it wasn't until about 3 weeks prior that they posted their number on their website.
BP Report on how much oil spilled
For reference: ~3.26 million barrels total
Note that BP actually had about 3 different numbers, all of which coalesced around ~40,000 barrels/day. Both the Feds and BP agreed on the total oil collected by the capping stack before the well was finally shut off.

The initial shock was, 'wow, BP's number isn't much different from the Feds.' Everyone expected a super-lowball estimate from BP, but actually (in large part because of Dr. Hunter) they were pretty hemmed in by that final flowrate measurement, which everyone agreed was about as accurate as possible under the circumstances. The biggest difference between is the Feds assumed a constant or decreasing flowrate; BP's report argues that the flow rate kept increasing over timer due to erosion. Since the endpoint is fixed, they were just arguing over the slope of the curve (pointing up or pointing down). The Feds claimed that reservoir depletion was the governing factor. BP argued that erosion of the partially-closed BOP rams was what governed the flowrate.

As I mentioned, I saw some of the Federal witnesses (the Feds went first). I also got to see a couple of the BP flowrate estimate witnesses. The later was using an OLGA model. He was pretty reputable. He had (as memory serves) the highest of the BP estimates.

The first BP witness, however, was a haughty British geology professor out of Imperial College of London. He had the lowest of the BP estimates and depended on reservoir modelling for his results. He used equations of his own derivation based upon first principles. I got to witness some of the cross examination which (I think) was done by the same young prosecutor that led Mix's prosecution. He tore into the Brit professor, going into how much money BP had donated to Imperial College, how he used to work for BP, how his flowrate estimate was only lately published and wasn't peer reviewed. The professor, who didn't handle the pressure well, retorted, 'well, it was posted on the internet and I've received some really nice comments from people.' Not exactly as impressive as a peer-review.

What will Barbier do? The levels of uncertainty on this measurement are far beyond what scientists are usually comfortable with. There's no question I think that the Federal estimate is more reliable, but if Barbier would just take the mean of the two estimates, I wouldn't have a big problem with that. How much oil spilled?

Billions of dollars are on the line. Many of those dollars are reserved for coastal restoration in Louisiana. What choices Barbier makes will be worth paying attention to for a number of reasons.

NOTE: Some minor edits after publishing.

UPDATE: The dates for the final phase of the main BP trial were just announced today:

Richard Thompson (@rthompsonMSY) tweeted -
"Mark your calendars: Phase 3 of #BP oil spill trial, the "penalty phase," to begin 1/20/15 and end 2/5, per order issued this morning."

More story here.

More Patches

Patches Update: Keeping a charge up Edition

Patches makes a friend who is even rustier

Ever since I bought Patches, it's had a slow drain on the battery. The wiring is such a rat's nest, I can't even begin to troubleshoot it, so instead I just resort to trickle charging and jumping Patches on a not irregular basis.

I've had an EZ Wiring Harness for a while, and that's the permanent fix, but that'll take a while (and takes Patches out of commission in the interim).

For the meantime, I've gotten a temporary fix in place:

A terminal post disconnect switch. Note the trickle charging in progress as well.

Also, with the help of New Orleans Classic Motorworks, Patches no longer leaks oil! Yay! The oil pressure sense tube wasn't screwed in correctly at the back of the engine (behind the distributor). It's a bitch to get to and it also sprayed oil all over the back of the engine and was a total mess. After re-running the line (and a new oil leak at the gauge, which was quickly fixed), no more leak.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Neil DeGrasse Tyson at Tulane

We arrived early for Neil DeGrasse Tyson at Tulane, but barely made the overflow room. Summary of the talk. Excellent summary. And then the comments... Sigh ... Louisiana needs some stupid knocked out of it.

I've been poking fun at coworkers who went to LSU saying I don't think that they could have managed hosting NDT ("Dr. Tyson, what's your opinion of chicken boxing?"), while Tulane could. Tulane's Campus programming even ate his speaking fee and opened it up for the public (yes, there was a hell of a line, but kudos to Tulane).

I also want to relay a little story. Not only is Neil DeGrasse Tyson a brilliant astrophysicist and the coolest scientist alive, but he's also a tremendous human being.

We bumped into a friend of mine at the overflow room. He had his wife and ~6 year old daughter there with him. As little ones are wont to do, the daughter had to go pee 5 minutes before the event started. The wife & girl hurry off. While they are gone, Dr. Tyson darted into the overflow room, waved at everyone, said Hi, then started running back across McAllister Drive for McAllister auditorium. As he was running through the student union, he saw my friend's daughter. Dr. Tyson stopped in his tracks, turned around, ran back to the little girl, high-five'd her, turned back around, and then hustled back to start the talk. He talked for an hour and a half then took questions.

Update: videos

Saturday, March 29, 2014

US Attorney Commenting Scandal

A few years ago, this was heroic Jim Letten, the big-game hunter, on a float "slaying the Kraken"... now...

Comment Scandal Likely to Blow Wide Open The Lens / M. Mosley

The $th Estate Must read over at AZ... "If Jim Letten was commenting, holy fuck, was that ever dumb."

Things are about to get interesting.

On a related note, I got to attend a little Q&A session with Letten's successor, Ken Polite.

The chat was interesting.  He explained the basics of the office.  He stated 'the office is the ultimate check and balance (especially in this area) on politicians to ensure their office is not for sale.'  He talked about Danziger and how the government shutdown affected his office.  He talked about "restoring confidence in the office."  He talked about his time at Harvard ("I hate the snow").  One of the interesting things I found was he talked about how none of the previous US Attorneys in the Eastern District had ever bothered to meet with all the Sheriffs and police chiefs in their district (preferring to stick to the city and more or less ignore the more rural areas) and none had ever had a face to face meeting with the chief federal public defender (preferring a strictly adversarial relationship).  He was very frustrated with "2 decades of stagnation at the top management within the office" (while the chief US attorney turned over regularly, none of the more senior employees did, much to the detriment of the office).  One other nice quote: (talking about crime in New Orleans), "All too often, the victim and perpetrators look like me."  I even got to ask a question of Mr. Polite.  I asked, "So, what's the transition been like?  Easier or more difficult than you expected?"  He seemed to enjoy answering my question and broke it down in 2 parts: outside the office and inside the office.  He said that outside the office, he was far better received and supported than he ever dared hope, especially considering he was taking over for such a long tenured and popular chief prosecutor.  He then said inside the office was far more difficult than he expected (and he was expecting a rough road).  He says he spends an inexcusably inordinate amount of time dealing with internal personnel issues.  "Some people are supportive of change until it happens".  He said he's also only 4 months into the transition and he hopes it gets smoother.

Mr. Polite's #1 piece of advice for young people was also, "Choose your friends wisely; it reflects on yourself."

Shapeways Factory

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Higher Ed Meltown in Louisiana

First off, this email has been going around, relating to the possible merger of the schools of sciences and engineering at UNO:

Dr. Peter J. Fos, President of The University of New Orleans, is deciding right now on whether or not to merge the College of Engineering into the College of Sciences.  This merger will have a very negative impact on the engineering community for the following reasons: 

1.       The perception by the engineering community will be that engineering is no longer a priority for the university.  Until 1972 the engineering program was housed in a department within the College of Sciences.  The perception by employers before the creation of a School of Engineering was that UNO really did not have an engineering program.
2.       Parents will question the viability of the engineering programs at UNO once the news goes out that the colleges will be merged.  It is already difficult to recruit high school students to attend UNO, and the proposed action will make this task even more difficult.  The perception will be that UNO is “cutting” engineering.  We had this same problem when the last university administration proposed combining engineering programs into one general engineering program.
3.       While within Louisiana, Louisiana Tech and Tulane have combined engineering and science divisions, this action will have a huge negative impact at UNO.  Louisiana Tech, which has a College of Engineering and Science, took this action long ago as a strategic move to align the needs of the engineering programs with the mathematics, physics, and chemistry departments (they have chemical engineering).  There is still a separate College of Applied and Natural Sciences.  At Tulane the combination of engineering and sciences has resulted in a reduced emphasis on engineering.  All other engineering programs in the state are housed in Colleges of Engineering.
4.       The New Orleans area needs an engineering school located in New Orleans.
What can you do? 

1.       Contact Dr. Peter J. Fos, UNO President, and give him your opinion on this merger.  His contact information is:
a.       Direct Telephone 504.280.5536
b.      Fax 504.280.6872
c.       Email
2.       Contact our local politicians as follows:
a.       Mitch Landrieu, Mayor of New Orleans – 504.658.4800 or
b.      John Young, Jefferson Parish President – 504.736.6405 or
c.       Senator Conrad Appel – 504.838.5550 or
d.      Other local parish or state legislators who you may know
3.       Contact your company Human Resources Manager or Supervisor and express your concern to them and ask them to intervene in your behalf.
As past Chairman and Member of the UNO Engineering Advisory Board (comprised of every major corporation in the area) for over thirty-five years, I cannot stress enough the importance of your voice in this proposed merger. 

Michael S. Benbow, P.E.
M S Benbow and Associates
Direct 504.836.8976
The merger idea has been shelved, but the layoffs have now started and I'd like to add my thoughts as a current grad student.  

Everyone knows that Jindal has axed $700 million (and counting) from the higher ed budget in Louisiana.  This has hit all state universities extremely hard.  Even LSU has not been immune; LSU has shrunk from 33k+ students down to around 28k students, with hundreds of faculty departing.  Until this year, LSU faculty had not had a raise in 8 years.  Within the UL system, faculty haven’t had a raise in 7 years.  You’re not going to retain your best staff under those conditions, period. I highly recommend this piece from The Advocate: "Rising Tide".  It notes that LSU's out-of-state enrollment has plummeted, while Alabama's has soared.    

UNO has a couple of additional factors working against it.  First, before Katrina, UNO was 17k+ students.  After Katrina, they took an enormous hit in enrollment (the city’s population was halved for a long period after the storm). 
Second, the registrar had a policy of academic probation if students didn’t keep their grades up.  If they didn’t pull up their grades the following semester, they were banned from registering the next semester and were forced to reapply. This policy was on the books for decades, but was unenforced until recently.  When the new registrar announced that they’re following that policy to the letter of the law, they kicked 800 students out in a single semester. 
Third, UNO has implemented admissions requirements that aren’t terribly high, but Louisiana’s high schools (public, private, and parochial) aren’t capable of preparing them adequately. When UNO started requiring a 19 on the math portion of the ACT*, only 8,000 seniors per year in Louisiana were capable of meeting that.  Once again, that number INCLUDES private and parochial schools in Louisiana (which have substantial enrollment).  That’s the entire pool in the state that can meet that (frankly, pretty low) threshold.  If you want to be an engineering student, you’ll need to do much better than that to make it to graduation.  The biggest problem with the low pool is not necessarily the public schools in the Baton Rouge/New Orleans corridor; it’s the rural schools in Louisiana.  The math scores at the rural schools frankly suck (public, private, and parochial). 
With all these factors combined, the enrollment at UNO has plummeted from 17k+ to ~9k currently.  Applications have remained strong, but they’ve taken a few serious hits along the way. 
The state also has a lot of universities all over the place.  We spend as much money supporting universities in such metropolises as Ruston, Hammond, and Monroe as we do supporting UNO in New Orleans, yet the overwhelming majority of the state’s population resides in the New Orleans/Baton Rouge corridor. 
Jindal has, in essence, privatized the state university system in Louisiana.  Instead of fully privatizing them, there’s still state restrictions on the schools though.  The universities aren’t allowed to set their own tuition.  There are other restrictions, for example there are 9 semester hours of English and 3 hours of biology required for all students.  The average degree is ~120 semester hours; that’s 10% of the time at the university that’s dictated by the state legislature.  If fully freed from restrictions, UNO could probably survive on its own.  Also, keep in mind, as bad as it is for UNO, there are other schools in far more dire straits.  In the UL system, only Grambling has managed to balance its budget for the coming year.  LA Tech faces an even bigger deficit than UNO (nearly $2 million in the red at LA Tech for the current year). 
The previous university administrations had kicked the can down the road and met the previous budget problems with shifting reserve funds around and hocus pocus, without fundamental changes to the university.  In their defense, they were assured by the Jindal administration they wouldn’t have to suffer through the cuts year after year and it would pass.  So, they put bandaids in place.  Now the bandaids have burst, blood is gushing out, and the new university administration is desperate to stem the tide.  President Fos is a big improvement over the previous administrators and strongly supports science and engineering at UNO, but he doesn’t have a lot to work with at the moment
As both State Treasurer Kennedy and Clancy DuBos have recently said, UNO built a good chunk of the middle class in New Orleans.  Education, at all levels, is your primary investment in the future.  What’s going to happen next? 
The state has money. Oil prices are up and there's enough money for Jindal to hand out a $4m no-bid efficiency study. For that same amount of money, UNO could more than double the budget for the college of engineering.  

Long term, I'm actually fairly optimistic for UNO.  UNO is still a very good value, but tuition has gone up more than 50% since 2008 (and that’s before Jindal announced he’s allowing the universities to start raising tuition 10% per year to raise funds++). UNO’s out of state tuition is still less than in-state tuition at the California schools.  It offers in-state rates to certain out of state students with good test scores.  If UNO gets through the next few years, I'm optimistic that they'll start to put these problems behind them.  

I'm less optimistic for LSU and here's why: BR Chamber of Commerce plots the death of TOPS.  I've read 80% of LSU students are there on TOPS.  Under that Chamber proposal, if you look at the ACT statistics*, TOPS would be cut off from 89% of Louisiana high school graduates.  The Legislature has been plugging state Higher Ed funds into TOPS year after year to feed the monster, only to discover the following year, the beast is still hungry, partly because the state universities now have less state funding (quite the vicious circle).  Either late in Jindal's term or very early in Jindal's successor's term, TOPS is either going to need a substantial infusion of revenue or Pat Taylor's dream will slowly wither and die.  LSU will not survive the fall of TOPS, at least, not as a flagship university.  

* ACT Statistics for Louisiana in 2012 here.  Look through those numbers.  

++ I still have yet to see a list of "favored majors" under the WISE Act.  The WISE Act is still a very empty proposal thus far.  

Sunday, February 16, 2014

I got SPANK'd on Bourbon Street

Ugh.  At least I'm nowhere near as hung over as I rightly deserve to be.  

First time marching in KdV (ref'd last year).  I need to remember next year to include a zipper in the costume next year.  

The KdV crowds were (I think) larger than last year, yet much better behaved.  

I'm going to back to my coffee now.
Scanned SPANK Map of DizneyLandrieu 

More KdV

Ballgagged Putin & Bear
Marcher's Perspective
Glitter Bukkake

Krewe du Vieux 2014

Monde Du Merde has your year in review.

Dizney Landrieu's Magical Gentrified Kingdom

Friday, February 14, 2014

Nagin gets the Taiwanese Animation treatment

Actually not that far off from how he actually governed.  (H/T @skooks )

Saturday, February 8, 2014