Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Hillary's gotta go...

NOTE- Some of this might be a little premature, but fuck it; I'm going ball to the wall...

Obama, McCain sweep. Obama's won 8 in a row. Hill didn't pull in more than 36% in any race (as of my writing).

That's it folks. We've got the Fall lineup here. Anything more is just belaboring the point.

Here are some of my thoughts:
* Huckabee did a commendable job towards the end. He's a genuinely likeable guy. Even Matt Taibbi was initially disarmed by him (not an easy task). Had he just raised a little more money, he could have defeated all the Washington insider candidates, no mean feat. He could still wind up causing major headaches for McCain if he stays in, but he'll probably accept the Veep slot and be content.

* McCain is deader than a deer in the headlights of an 18-wheeler when he faces Obama in the general election. He lost every election amongst the conservative base.+ He was dragged across the finish line by the moderate/liberal Republicans and Independents, NONE of whom will support him against Obama. McCain's biggest asset (media hard on for McCain) is totally neutralized by Obama and his biggest weaknesses (Iraq and his age) are exposed. It's going to be an ass-whupping of Reaganesque levels. He's going to be lucky to carry his home state.

* Hillary. Poor girl. I've never really liked her, but now that she's facing the firing squad, I feel sorry for her. Here's my take on her: she wanted to be a real reformer (as evidenced by Hillarycare). She was beaten down in brutal fashion for 10 years. She wanted to change things from the inside. She finally thought, 'hey, let me make a few compromises, sneak into office, and then I can change things from the inside.' She started giving lobbyists handjobs and before she knew it, she was taking on all of K-Street. And now, in the ultimate tragedy for her, she has to watch a younger candidate who made a point of not compromising on their principles (Iraq vote) and not accepting K-Street money (for the presidential campaign) come out of nowhere and grab the nomination by acclamation. It was her turn, but everyone turned on her and now she sees what she could have been reflected in Obama. That's why I feel so sorry for her.

* Obama's biggest threat, once Hillary is finally dragged off stage in tears, won't be McCain. It'll be the total mess left by Bush. Who wants to inherit a bankrupt, fucked up, militarily weakened, resource depleted ex-hegemon facing the reality of a multi-polar world? According to the Cunning Realist, Bush may have laid the perfect trap for the next president. "How many people cursed Nixon and Burns in '79?" How many will curse Bush in 4 years? His best hope, honestly, is the mess blows up in Bush's face in a way that cannot be denied before Bush leaves office.

+ I work in a fairly conservative office, so I think I know why he's had so many problems with the base. It comes down to 2 factors: the McCain/Bush/Kennedy Immigration Bill and his actions reaching across the aisle during the 2000-2006 domination of the levers of power. Republicans have respect for winners and competitive spirit. Republicans could have fallen in line with Rudy, had he just won. From 2000-2006, Republicans were talking about building a "permanent majority" in both houses, the judiciary, and the executive branch. The Dems were on Terri Shivo levels of life support. Total domination of the government. McCain's problem was when the Dems were on the verge of being crushed once and for all, he hesitated crushing their windpipe and instead tried being civil and statesman-like. By some twisted logic, he didn't 'want to win.' I wouldn't be too surprised if one "narrative" that emerges in the years ahead blames McCain for the collapse of the Republican party...

1 comment:

mominem said...

I think you're wrong on the General Election.

Where are the conservatives going to go except home? They also have a high historical turnout. That could be pivotal.

Both candidates offer something different. Who will win? I predict a very close race.