Monday, June 30, 2008

Spam Email of the Day

This one's about oil and ANWAR. I'm going to start cataloging some of these. My response is at the end, again. Also, I can't get the images attached to the emails to send for some reason. If anyone is really curious, I can forward the email. It basically is a few photos of Alaska and a few maps.

THIS IS VERY GOOD..I THINK IT EXPLAINS THE SITUATION VERY WELL. BE SURE TO GO ALL THE WAY TO THE END..SOMEHOW WE MUST TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK---START BY DISTRIBUTING THIS TO ALL YOU KNOW

Subject: Good reading - ANWR
FIRST… do you know what ANWR is?

ANWR = Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

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Now… A comparison

And some perspective…

NOTE WHERE THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT AREA IS…
(it's in the "ANWR Coastal Plain")

THIS IS WHAT THE DEMOCRATS, LIBERALS AND "GREENS" SHOW YOU WHEN THEY TALK ABOUT ANWR
…and they are right… these ARE photographs of ANWR

ISN'T ANWR BEAUTIFUL? WHY SHOULD WE DRILL HERE (AND DESTROY) THIS BEAUTIFUL PLACE?



WELL… THAT'S NOT EXACTLY THE TRUTH

Do you remember the map?

The map showed that the proposed drilling area is in the ANWR Coastal Plain

Do those photographs look like a coastal plain to you?

WHAT'S GOING ON HERE?

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THE ANSWER IS SIMPLE…

THAT IS NOT WHERE THEY ARE WANTING TO DRILL!

THIS IS WHAT THE PROPOSED EXPLORATION AREA ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE IN THE WINTER

AND THIS IS WHAT IT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE IN THE SUMMER

HERE ARE A COUPLE SCREEN SHOTS FROM GOOGLE EARTH

AS YOU CAN SEE, THE AREA WHERE THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT DRILLING IS A BARREN WASTELAND.

OH… AND THEY SAY THAT THEY ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WILDLIFE…

HERE IS A PHOTO (SHOT DURING THE SUMMER) OF THE
"DEPLETED WILDLIFE" SITUATION CREATED BY DRILLING AROUND PRUDHOE BAY *…
DON'T YOU THINK THAT THE CARIBOU REALLY HATE THAT DRILLING?

HERE'S THAT SAME SPOT DURING THE WINTER.

HEY, THIS BEAR SEEMS TO REALLY HATE THE PIPELINE NEAR PRUDHOE BAY *…

*The Prudhoe bay area accounts for 17% of U.S. domestic oil production

NOW, WHY DO YOU THINK THAT THE DEMOCRATS ARELYING ABOUT ANWR?

REMEMBER WHEN AL GORE SAID THAT
THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD WORK TO ARTIFICIALLY RAISE GAS PRICES
TO $5.00 A GALLON?

WELL…
AL GORE AND HIS FELLOW DEMOCRATS HAVE ALMOST REACHED THEIR GOAL!

NOW THAT YOU KNOW THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN LYING,
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT IT?

YOU CAN START BY FORWARDING THIS TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW…
SO THAT THEY WILL KNOW THE TRUTH.

And here's my response:

I agree on drilling ANWAR, but if you think that drilling ANWAR will bring back 99 cents a gallon, think again.

Drilling in northern Alaska is some of the harshest conditions on earth (read: expensive to drill).

It will take years to explore for and tap oil (read: 10 years at least before any new oil).

Drilling for oil is risky business. In the old days, only one out of every 7 wildcat wells struck oil. Even with better technology, risks still abound. Look up Mukluk. It was a dry hole that BP drilled right next to ANWAR that cost a BILLION+ dollars back in 1980 (back when the dollar was worth more than the paper it was printed on). (Read: no guarantee of any oil at all).

US oil production peaked in 1970 and has declined every year since. Texas, with almost no restrictions to drilling, peaked about the same time. Energy Independence is nothing more that a politician's lie.

The best analysis I've seen puts probable production at around half a million barrels a day. Global demand is 85 million barrels per day or so. Even if we were to find another huge field, it's doubtful it would replace the decline of existing supergiant fields like Cantarelle in Mexico or Ghawar in Saudi Arabia. Remember, America once had more oil than than all of Saudi Arabia, but used most of it up over a period of time.

Listen, I've worked in the oil industry and there just are no easy answers anymore. Don't blame "the speculators." Don't blame "Big Oil."

If you want to read up on some fantastic research and talk about the current and future energy challenges, I highly recommend reading The Oil Drum (www.TheOilDrum.com). A very technically-oriented site that covers everything you might want to know.

Take care,
Clay


If I were thinking, I would have attached this chart.

1 comment:

Maitri said...

I've been thinking about this post and the chart at the end. I've also been re-reading The Prize, this time with more experience in the oil industry and increased attention to detail.

Everyone looks for the holy grail of high oil prices, be it declining supply, speculation, the oil companies wanting profits and consumption. The two most important factors for me are RECOVERABLE supply and demand. Supply we can talk into the ground (no pun intended):

1) American production is on the decline and has been since the mid-70s because we've achieved our peak.

2) Well, is it? We didn't have the technology in the 70s to drill and produce our own difficult hydrocarbons. Moreover, Arab oil was plentiful and cheaper than us extracting our own stuff, so we have gone that route in the last 30 years.

2a) We pay the piper for wanting their resource and meddling in their affairs and end up with with the need to cover our own asses, hence resource nationalism.

3) Now that we have the technology and have, for the most part, successfully explored our own reservoirs, we should drill it. But, wait, how much of it is recoverable and what cost to the taxpayer, corporation and the environment? Recoverable primarily means economically feasible.

Ok, on to demand. Even if we squeeze every possible drop of currently-producable hydrocarbon NOW and every remaining drop of future-producable hydrocarbon later on, hydrocarbons are still a FINITE RESOURCE.

This is why I want to see consumption (American and global) curves and not just production curves. If consumption is going up in America primarily, and the rest of the world, secondarily, no amount of increased production will satisfy our growing demand. While we take and take and take from the earth to satisfy our hunger, when are we going to take the time to invest in and research alternative and renewable source of energy? Our current course is not sustainable. Jobs and energy supply just for the next 10 years is not sustainable.

On top of that, we're broke right now. This desparation is making u do silly things like petitions to open up drilling everywhere. That is all fine and good if we promise to invest as much money, if not more, in renewable fuels which we constantly complain is still 50 years down the line. If we don't invest in it now and mean it, it will always be 50 years down the line while oil and gas supplies dwindle.

How do we know for sure when that well will run dry? Precisely why we need other options.

Hope I've made some sense here. I'm interested to see your response and any consumption curves you find. We can then compare, contrast and discuss.