Go Away Bonnie

Go Away Bonnie
Originally uploaded by Noladishu

Sequal to the BP Cake

Floodgates during Ike

I read a lot of articles like this one after Gustav talking about how the levees passed their first test, but also exposed the flaws in the levees. It seems to me like Ike ended up having a much higher storm surge than Gustav. Ike forced the closure of the 17th Street and London Avenue Canals much earlier than Gustav.

I was off early Friday, so I decided to take a little trip to the Lakefront.

Sure enough, the floodgates were down.

I noticed that only 1 pump was in operation. It turned out to be one of the Moving Water Industries pumps (which were the subject of much controversy when they were purchased). Now, as an engineer, I have to point out that water coming out of the pipe doesn't let them off the hook. The pumps might not be operating to their design curve and there's still questions about the purchasing of the pumps, but they did work when the Corps needed them to.

You can visually tell the water level outside the gates is much higher than on a normal day. Here's a photo I took a while back for comparison:

Notice the water level on the discharge pipes for comparison.

I also swung by the 17th Street Canal, which is much more important for the city. Unfortunately, the site is very cramped and due to the storm surge, you can't walk around it as well as you can with the London Avenue Canal, so I can't tell what's going on as well. It was so windy, I couldn't even tell how many pumps (if any) were in operation.

Looking back towards the city, the level looked awfully high:

Here's the rest of the photo set.

Stand Back: I'm Going to Try Science!

Today could be our last day on Earth. The Large Hadron Collider is starting up. Steven Hawking puts the odds of a black hole ripping apart the earth at "less that 1%." What does the LHC mean for the US? It means we're falling behind in science and science education at an alarming rate. Remember, Particle Physics is "the branch of science that delivered just about every major technology of the past hundred years." Computers, the atomic bomb, nanotechnology, the list goes on. And as I'm writing this post: CERN is up and running!

The US still has the best scientists in the world, but has the worst science education in the industrialized world. What are the problems with science education in the US? Well, let's ask the Mythbusters guys.

First off, you have lawyers:

Thanks to Visa, AmEx, etc. Mythbusters isn't allowed to tear gaping holes into RFID chips. Fuck you very much, assholes. I guess there are some things that are just too dangerous for people to learn, according to lawyers.

Here's how Adam Savage suggests we fix science education. Most important point: get your hands dirty.

And while we're at it, here's Jamie's thoughts on the energy crisis.

What would Houston and Galveston look like after a bad storm surge? Bad. The Houston Ship Channel becomes their MR-GO.

Phun. The coolest 2D physics sandbox ever. Free software. Excellent way to waste your entire Wednesday. Had I had this as a kid, we'd all be going around in flying cars by now.

One final comment: Remember, scientists are cooler than Denzel Washington, according to the man himself.


---
Title.

UPDATE- Damn I wish I had an editor sometimes. Misspelled the title. Oops. Now fixed.

Back Home

Back in New Orleans. It's good to be back.

Our Asinine Mayor

The headline on the local paper had the following quote from our mayor: "I don't think Gustav was the mother of all storms. More like the mother in law or ugly sister." Tim has more thoughts on that quote.

Nagin has also implanted his head up his ass on the reentry plan. Or should I say lack thereof. Surprised? Also, why reenter at midnight during a dusk to dawn curfew. That's strike three in the same press conference.

Fortunately, Head and Fielkow know that some people need to get in and do shit. Attention city council members: if you're next to Ray and his lips are moving, you're job is to smack him in the mouth and shut him up.

Gustav Predictions

Storm Surge Model from Weather Underground

NOTE- THIS IS SPECULATION. DON'T USE IT TO MAKE EVACUATION PLANS.

I've been surveying the storm surge models and tracks. From what I can tell, I think Orleans Parish proper will have no more than moderate damage. It looks like it's going to be far enough away from the city and it's weakened enough to keep the eastbank safe, although you never know how what will happen with the funner (GIWW/MR-GO). I think the westbank is in great danger. If I recall correctly, only 2 of the 3 floodgates on the Harvey Canal are complete. I'd also be really worried about all the small towns between the Atchafalaya and the Mississippi. Houma's going to take a big hit.


Possible damage to oil infrastructure from Gustav via The Oil Drum
This looks to be a doomsday track for the oil industry, but the platforms are stronger (some were improved after Katrina and the weakest ones were taken out by Rita) than people think and the storm has weakened slightly. That could greatly reduce damage. Pay attention to what happens with the LOOP and Fourchon (America's Oil Port).

When I was driving around New Orleans yesterday, I noticed plenty of National Guard from Louisiana (locals protecting locals!). They had plenty of brand new equipment. They were out in force and were deploying all over the city. I doubt there will be any looting this time around. Jindal is making McCain regret his Veep choice.

Stay safe and I hope we all come through this ok. We'll see how this all turns out.

Safe from Gustav

After initially wanting to ride out the storm, we decided to hit the road. We took late Saturday and dropped my car off on the northshore before heading up I-12 to I-55 to North Mississippi.

Some of the signs have been shut down before the wind even shows up

UPDATE- One big difference from Katrina- buses evacuating nursing home patients and others.

UPDATE- Lots of traffic.
We averaged 35 mph on I-55 until we got to Mississippi and then it picked up slowly.

Once we got north of Jackson, we were finally able to hit the speed limit. We to our destination in North Mississippi a little after midnight.

We decided to get all the way out of the storm. Candice and I are safe in North Mississippi. We're hanging out way in the country. Blogging might be a little slow, but I'll be busy typing things up and I'll dump them when I get to a connection. I can use Twitter with my phone, so you can follow me on that. Susie is enjoying the country:


Stay safe and see y'all back in New Orleans in a few days.

Open Letter to the Corps from Matt McBride

Recipient of the 2007 Ashley Morris award and fellow mechanical engineer is trying to pressure the Corps into releasing their surge modeling to show the public what would happen if Gustav comes this way. The Corps is probably running surge models based off computer projections (like GFDL) and Matt wants them released to the public. It would be a great step for the Corps to take to rebuild their reputation. Remember that risk management is very simple: "Just tell the truth," according to John Barry.

*******************

Dear Corps officials, (as well as government representatives, New Orleanians, and media representatives),

I am writing you to make a request. In light of the possible effects of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Gustav upon the Greater New Orleans area, I would ask that the Corps and its partners at LSU and the Universtity of North Carolina make public the results of storm surge model runs which are (or soon will be) created as part of the Lake Pontchartrain Forecast System (LPFS).

As I understand it, the Corps has contracted with UNC's Institute of Marine Sciences (contracts W912P8-06-P-0334 (from 2006, for $279,117) and W912P8-08-P-0082 (from earlier in 2008, for $101,512)) and their partners at LSU to provide forecasts of surge levels within Lake Pontchartrain when tropical systems are approaching New Orleans. This enables the Corps to determine when to lower the gates at the three interim closure structures along the Lake Pontchartrain south shore. The system is explained on a few webpages at LSU:

http://www.cct.lsu.edu/site38.php
http://www.cct.lsu.edu/~estrabd/LPFS/
http://www.cct.lsu.edu/~estrabd/LPFS/distributed-lpfs.pdf
http://www.cct.lsu.edu/~gallen/Preprints/CS_Allen07a.pre.pdf


In light of the Corps' "12 Actions for Change" specifically Action Number 9, "Effectively Communicate Risk," it would be tremendous goodwill gesture to the public across the country to know what the Corps knows about the surge risk before the storm makes landfall.

Doing so would be in the same spirit that allows the National Hurricane Center and other organizations to make the results of hurricane track and intensity model runs available to public. Doing so allows government agencies and members of the public to plan more effectively, and allows the media to get more accurate information out to the public as they plan.

As part of your public outreach during the coming days, I urge you to upload the model results to your website so that everyone can be apprised of this vital information which will inform your decisions.

Best regards,

Matt McBride

*******************

Let's see if the media picks this up and runs with it.

UPDATE- Look what we have here: USGS map of water levels

UPDATE 2- Storm Surge Model for Gustav

Hurricane Dean / Hurricane "Da Hat"

The Corps is now hard at work trying to drown Canada and St. Louis...

Also, Eddie Jordanlost his appeal. The taxpayers of New Orleans will have to pay for his mistakes. Remember, he used William Jefferson's Chief of Staff to turn the DA's office into a political patronage position for $Bill... My favorite hire was replacing their a key ballistics expert with someone who's only experience was "some office work at a law firm and as a lifeguard." (Hit the Eddie Jordan tag to pull up the archives on him...)

PDF copy of the Court's findings. Is it just me or does this document make him look like an even bigger moron? Any lawyers want to chime in?