Sunday, August 31, 2008

Gustav Predictions

Storm Surge Model from Weather Underground


I've been surveying the storm surge models and tracks. From what I can tell, I think Orleans Parish proper will have no more than moderate damage. It looks like it's going to be far enough away from the city and it's weakened enough to keep the eastbank safe, although you never know how what will happen with the funner (GIWW/MR-GO). I think the westbank is in great danger. If I recall correctly, only 2 of the 3 floodgates on the Harvey Canal are complete. I'd also be really worried about all the small towns between the Atchafalaya and the Mississippi. Houma's going to take a big hit.

Possible damage to oil infrastructure from Gustav via The Oil Drum
This looks to be a doomsday track for the oil industry, but the platforms are stronger (some were improved after Katrina and the weakest ones were taken out by Rita) than people think and the storm has weakened slightly. That could greatly reduce damage. Pay attention to what happens with the LOOP and Fourchon (America's Oil Port).

When I was driving around New Orleans yesterday, I noticed plenty of National Guard from Louisiana (locals protecting locals!). They had plenty of brand new equipment. They were out in force and were deploying all over the city. I doubt there will be any looting this time around. Jindal is making McCain regret his Veep choice.

Stay safe and I hope we all come through this ok. We'll see how this all turns out.

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