Tuesday, November 27, 2007

2008's biggest trend: Washington Insiders vs. Outsiders

One of the things that's been intriguing to me is how, despite the initial media reaction of lumping candidates into "tiers" and dissing the minor candidates, there's been a widespread disgust with the early frontrunners and it goes well beyond that. There's widespread revulsion with the entire political structure. This is a sentiment that comes and goes in politics, but it's incredibly strong now, bordering on violent in some circles.

The most interesting thing in 2008 won't be Democrats vs. Republicans; it will be Insiders vs. Outsiders.

By my reconing, here's how I'm lining everyone up:

* Hillary
* Giuliani (BFF with Roger Ailes)
* Fred Thompson

* Edwards
* Bloomberg (The odds on a Bloomberg run are getting better)
* Ron Paul
* Huckabee (His recent surge in the polls is evidence of the disgust of the base with the babykilling Yankee and the Mormon)

Stradlers: (either they've got one foot in both camps or I don't know where to stick 'em at this point)
* Obama
* McCain
* Mitt Romney

The tension between the Insider camp and the Outsider camp is closer to the surface than ever before. You can see it in their eyes. I especially notice Edwards whenever Hillary speaking; he's practically mouthing, 'you crooked little bastard...' He hates Hillary and it shows. The Ron Pauller celebrate Guy Fawkes day and speak of the Ron Paul Revolution. Even Matt Taibbi thinks Huckabee's heart is with the little guy and against the big corporate interests (there's just that little bit about his brain being on Pluto).

Bloomberg could spawn a new party and/or kill of one of the current parties. I think lots of Democrats would bolt from their party if given a genuine choice. A lot of Republicans had their party leave them and the ones that are left might go if Giuliani is the nominee.

I think the only way for an Insider to win would be more turbulent international times (calling for someone with experience) coupled with a split of the Outsider vote (say, Thompson running against Edwards AND Bloomberg).

Time will tell...

Oh yeah, here's an actual ad Huckabee is running. Too funny not to post:

"Chuck Norris doesn't endorse; he tells America how it's going to be!"

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