Ashley Morris has passed away. I only met him in person a couple of times, but his writing was an inspiration. I'm shocked he's gone all of a sudden. He will be sorely missed. My condolences to his family.
Greg Peters and Ray eulogize him.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Oil drips and discharges
There is no gas shortage. While this author makes some good points, he has some enormous holes in his arguments. He confuses oil inventories with gasoline inventories. Also, while gasoline is at a 15 year high in terms of absolute numbers, in terms of days of supply, we're not doing nearly as well. Days of supply are how many days we could run our cars without any new refining until we ran out. It takes into consideration consumption, which is much higher now than it was in 1990. Also, as much as people's eyes pop at the profits the oil majors are making now, it wasn't too long ago they were just hanging on. In the late 90's, when gasoline was 99 cents a gallon (partly as a result of Venezuela fighting for market share), companies were laying off workers and just barely hanging on. After the oil bust in the 80's, 1/3 of the entire industry lost their jobs! I still find if fascinating that the old timers I deal with are thinking 'when is the bubble going to bust' and not 'wow, we're making a lot of money.' The oil bust of the 80's is still deeply ingrained into the psyche of oilfield workers.
Artic the next Saudi Arabia? I doubt it. The most famous prospect in the Arctic is Mukluk. Mukluk is INFAMOUS within the oil industry. It was considered to be a "sure thing" and when the exploration rights were put of for auction by MMS (Federal Government), the bidding exploded. BP spent a billion dollars (back when a billion dollars meant something) to drill a dry hole (no oil). Other companies couldn't believe it, so they went in and drilled more dry holes. No oil was ever found. Here's a different geologist's take. Much more realistic. Nice little factoid at the end, too.
Japanese government paid for 100% of Prius' hybrid drive development, ex-VP alleges Toyota says Jim Press is full of shit. The truth is somewhere in the middle. Japan takes their engineering research very seriously. They spend boatloads on research that could be useful in the near term on what is usually referred to as 'application engineering' (my half-assed definition: applying known technologies in combination to get stuff done).
40% of Spanish electricity comes from wind. 40% of electricity production met by wind energy in a major industrial country... Wind has serious potential and is the most economical of all the alternative energies. That doesn't mean you can completely do without base load stations, but nobody can claim wind is useless. Don't forget about solar, too. Especially solar thermal. Solar power provides peak power (electricity at mid-day, when demand is highest), which makes it even more valuable. Solar power is a long way away from being economical for base power generation, but because peak power generation is so expensive (it's usually achieved through natural gas powered turbines), it is starting to be economical for peak power generation, even without subsidies.
Artic the next Saudi Arabia? I doubt it. The most famous prospect in the Arctic is Mukluk. Mukluk is INFAMOUS within the oil industry. It was considered to be a "sure thing" and when the exploration rights were put of for auction by MMS (Federal Government), the bidding exploded. BP spent a billion dollars (back when a billion dollars meant something) to drill a dry hole (no oil). Other companies couldn't believe it, so they went in and drilled more dry holes. No oil was ever found. Here's a different geologist's take. Much more realistic. Nice little factoid at the end, too.
Japanese government paid for 100% of Prius' hybrid drive development, ex-VP alleges Toyota says Jim Press is full of shit. The truth is somewhere in the middle. Japan takes their engineering research very seriously. They spend boatloads on research that could be useful in the near term on what is usually referred to as 'application engineering' (my half-assed definition: applying known technologies in combination to get stuff done).
40% of Spanish electricity comes from wind. 40% of electricity production met by wind energy in a major industrial country... Wind has serious potential and is the most economical of all the alternative energies. That doesn't mean you can completely do without base load stations, but nobody can claim wind is useless. Don't forget about solar, too. Especially solar thermal. Solar power provides peak power (electricity at mid-day, when demand is highest), which makes it even more valuable. Solar power is a long way away from being economical for base power generation, but because peak power generation is so expensive (it's usually achieved through natural gas powered turbines), it is starting to be economical for peak power generation, even without subsidies.
I was just thinking that I hadn't heard anything from Jim Letten in a while...
He was busy. And now we know what he was working on. Mose Jefferson indicted on 7 counts.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Lord Humongous' Streetcar
Seen on St. Charles:
Looks like one of the streetcars from the collision that was pressed into service with some box steel and plate steel armor. Looks like a cattle pusher.
How'd you like to look out your side mirror and see that barreling down at you? My favorite streetcar driver before the storm used to take his streetcar and gently nudge cars blocking the tracks with the little 4" rubber bumper on the front, all the while screaming, "move that buggy!" I can only imagine the destruction he would reap in this beasty.
Post apocalyptic New Orleans indeed...
UPDATE- And on the way home from work today, a pickup truck decided to pick a fight with a streetcar:
Streetcar vs. Pickup
Streetcar wins.
Looks like one of the streetcars from the collision that was pressed into service with some box steel and plate steel armor. Looks like a cattle pusher.
How'd you like to look out your side mirror and see that barreling down at you? My favorite streetcar driver before the storm used to take his streetcar and gently nudge cars blocking the tracks with the little 4" rubber bumper on the front, all the while screaming, "move that buggy!" I can only imagine the destruction he would reap in this beasty.
Post apocalyptic New Orleans indeed...
UPDATE- And on the way home from work today, a pickup truck decided to pick a fight with a streetcar:
Streetcar vs. Pickup
Streetcar wins.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Chinese engineering gone wrong...
A while back, everyone got all in a huff about lead and drug-laced Chinese-made toys. Everyone wondered what the hell was going on in China. And then of course, everyone forgot about it and moved on...
I just wanted to take a minute to share a few stories that have been forwarded to me over the past few months. I work in heavy industry, so equipment has to be of the highest quality. When it isn't, shit blows up and people die. Here are two stories of why the only thing made in China on some of the jobs I work on are the workers' underwear.
This photo is from a pressurized steam line in a powerplant. Most heavy duty seamless piping is made in a handful of mills in Japan (largest source), South Korea, and the United States. The pipe had documentation that said it was made in the USA. After it was installed and the plant was in operation, the pipe blew up killing 2 workers and injuring many others.
Insufficient weld penetration along the seam of the seamless pipe was the cause. Upon investigation, the pipe was made in China while the documentation was forged. Several important tests were either ignored or forged by unscrupulous brokers. Last I heard, the Chinese government was still trying to hunt down the last of the brokers.
The next story comes from a pressure vessel explosion. Pressure vessels are important pieces of equipment in many industrial processes. From boilers for heating, to cracking vessels, to separator vessels, making a large steel jar that can hold in all the pressure is extremely important.
Back in the late 19th and early 20th century, boiler explosions were common. Gradually, engineers learned their lesson and now all pressure vessels are manufactured to a common code put out by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME). ASME Boiler Code spells out ever little detail. It's thicker than a stack of Bibles. I wouldn't be surprised if the proper procedure to break wind around the vessel spelled out.
This is one vessel that failed in spectacular fashion. Nobody was injured (they were testing the vessel before shipment). Instead of bending, the steel just snapped with a ragged edge. That's a BAD sign. Steel is supposed to fail in a ductile (bending) fashion, not brittle failure (just snapping with no warning). No material testing (Charpy, etc.) was done on the steel during manufacturer. ASME boiler code wasn't consulted during the manufacture of this vessel. The foreman and his workers just built the vessel off the top of their head.
This is stuff that's almost unheard of since the 1930's. These are just 2 samples of failures I've gotten in my inbox in my time as an engineer.
Disturbing stuff from the country that's supposed to be "the next hyperpower." I think China has a lot of potential, but count me underwhelmed.
NOTE- Edits for grammar and clarity.
I just wanted to take a minute to share a few stories that have been forwarded to me over the past few months. I work in heavy industry, so equipment has to be of the highest quality. When it isn't, shit blows up and people die. Here are two stories of why the only thing made in China on some of the jobs I work on are the workers' underwear.
This photo is from a pressurized steam line in a powerplant. Most heavy duty seamless piping is made in a handful of mills in Japan (largest source), South Korea, and the United States. The pipe had documentation that said it was made in the USA. After it was installed and the plant was in operation, the pipe blew up killing 2 workers and injuring many others.
Insufficient weld penetration along the seam of the seamless pipe was the cause. Upon investigation, the pipe was made in China while the documentation was forged. Several important tests were either ignored or forged by unscrupulous brokers. Last I heard, the Chinese government was still trying to hunt down the last of the brokers.
The next story comes from a pressure vessel explosion. Pressure vessels are important pieces of equipment in many industrial processes. From boilers for heating, to cracking vessels, to separator vessels, making a large steel jar that can hold in all the pressure is extremely important.
Back in the late 19th and early 20th century, boiler explosions were common. Gradually, engineers learned their lesson and now all pressure vessels are manufactured to a common code put out by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME). ASME Boiler Code spells out ever little detail. It's thicker than a stack of Bibles. I wouldn't be surprised if the proper procedure to break wind around the vessel spelled out.
This is one vessel that failed in spectacular fashion. Nobody was injured (they were testing the vessel before shipment). Instead of bending, the steel just snapped with a ragged edge. That's a BAD sign. Steel is supposed to fail in a ductile (bending) fashion, not brittle failure (just snapping with no warning). No material testing (Charpy, etc.) was done on the steel during manufacturer. ASME boiler code wasn't consulted during the manufacture of this vessel. The foreman and his workers just built the vessel off the top of their head.
This is stuff that's almost unheard of since the 1930's. These are just 2 samples of failures I've gotten in my inbox in my time as an engineer.
Disturbing stuff from the country that's supposed to be "the next hyperpower." I think China has a lot of potential, but count me underwhelmed.
NOTE- Edits for grammar and clarity.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Odds and Ends - 21 March 2008
Protesters shot like dogs. This has the potential to be China's Abu Ghraib. Just imagine once those memory cards start getting smuggled out of Tibet... On the bright side, China's in the midst of their own Sexual Revolution.
Federal Reserve was looking out for little guy with Bear Sterns deal. Most of the commentary of the Bear Sterns deal is negative, but here's an articulate contrarian view. Even if you don't agree, the article is good food for thought.
Why the Dollar is so cheap. "When George Bush was inaugurated, the euro was trading at 94 cents and gold cost $266 an ounce. Now they are trading at $1.52 and $985 an ounce. That is a plain vote of no confidence in the BushBernanke economic model."
How desperate are some people for gas money? Wait until $6 a gallon...
Iraq War coverage disappearing. With China/Tibet/Olympics, Iraq, Presidential Race '08, and Oil/Economy/Recession there should be no reason to spend any time on Britney Spears...
Huckabee defends Obama on Fox News. Pretty classy of Huckabee. He's a real likeable guy and it's not fake. I don't think he'd make a good president, but he's a genuinely good person. Oh yeah, here's Obama's 2002 speech opposing war with Iraq. Amazing that this was delivered in 2002!
Spring Lease Sale for Gulf of Mexico Oil Drilling. I'll bet not 1/3 of these blocks get drilled within the next 3 years. There's a serious shortage of drilling rigs right now and an even more serious shortage of drillers. MMS should consider postponing their lease sales until things get smoothed out.
History's Greatest Replies. Churchill kicked some serious ass. He has a few entries.
Lord Black goes to the slammer. LOTS of gloating by the writer.
AIPAC on trial. There's a joke in the military that if the US ever went to war with Israel, Congress would pass funding for Israel before it did for the US military.
Did humans and chimps interbreed? Hey buddy, your great-(x30)-grandmother fucked a monkey!
And one last link:
Ugly the Cat. Uplifting story. End on a happy note.
Federal Reserve was looking out for little guy with Bear Sterns deal. Most of the commentary of the Bear Sterns deal is negative, but here's an articulate contrarian view. Even if you don't agree, the article is good food for thought.
Why the Dollar is so cheap. "When George Bush was inaugurated, the euro was trading at 94 cents and gold cost $266 an ounce. Now they are trading at $1.52 and $985 an ounce. That is a plain vote of no confidence in the BushBernanke economic model."
How desperate are some people for gas money? Wait until $6 a gallon...
Iraq War coverage disappearing. With China/Tibet/Olympics, Iraq, Presidential Race '08, and Oil/Economy/Recession there should be no reason to spend any time on Britney Spears...
Huckabee defends Obama on Fox News. Pretty classy of Huckabee. He's a real likeable guy and it's not fake. I don't think he'd make a good president, but he's a genuinely good person. Oh yeah, here's Obama's 2002 speech opposing war with Iraq. Amazing that this was delivered in 2002!
Spring Lease Sale for Gulf of Mexico Oil Drilling. I'll bet not 1/3 of these blocks get drilled within the next 3 years. There's a serious shortage of drilling rigs right now and an even more serious shortage of drillers. MMS should consider postponing their lease sales until things get smoothed out.
History's Greatest Replies. Churchill kicked some serious ass. He has a few entries.
Lord Black goes to the slammer. LOTS of gloating by the writer.
AIPAC on trial. There's a joke in the military that if the US ever went to war with Israel, Congress would pass funding for Israel before it did for the US military.
Did humans and chimps interbreed? Hey buddy, your great-(x30)-grandmother fucked a monkey!
And one last link:
Ugly the Cat. Uplifting story. End on a happy note.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Stinkin' Linkin returns to the big screen
The Stinkin Lincoln returns on April 2nd for the premier of Salt Dreams. April 2nd @ One Eyed Jacks.
Hey Clearview!
How's that banning the kiddies thing going? And no, all the patrons aren't hiding behind the plants...
The Sound of Ben Bernake being dead wrong...
Fed Chief downplays risk of Stagflation. You can just picture the author screaming "BULLSHIT!" to Bernake as he writes this article. At the exact same time that Bernake was speaking, Oil his the highest level ever (adjusted for inflation) and the dollar reached a new low against the Euro. Think the two could be related?
Dare I throw in a third thread responsible for the other two? Iraq. Nobel economist analyzes Iraq. $3 Trillion is his MOST CONSERVATIVE estimate of spending to date. He includes some budgetary vignettes that are priceless. Like how the army requires soldiers to pay for damaged helmets, even if the damage comes from an enemy bullet or bomb.
Bernake is quietly wishing Greenspan was there to help him out. Oh, whoops, Greenspan is fiscally cockblocking Bernake by advising Gulf States to drop their dollar pegs. On a related note, the much ballyhooed Iranian Oil Bourse opens on the same day oil closes above $100 for the first time ever. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had traded above $100 during the day and had closed once at $100, but never over that figure.
Warren Buffet gives the Fed the benefit of the doubt, but makes some interesting observations about the economy (and investing in general). Well worth a read.
UPDATE- ...And the next day, the Dow falls 315 points.
Dare I throw in a third thread responsible for the other two? Iraq. Nobel economist analyzes Iraq. $3 Trillion is his MOST CONSERVATIVE estimate of spending to date. He includes some budgetary vignettes that are priceless. Like how the army requires soldiers to pay for damaged helmets, even if the damage comes from an enemy bullet or bomb.
Bernake is quietly wishing Greenspan was there to help him out. Oh, whoops, Greenspan is fiscally cockblocking Bernake by advising Gulf States to drop their dollar pegs. On a related note, the much ballyhooed Iranian Oil Bourse opens on the same day oil closes above $100 for the first time ever. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had traded above $100 during the day and had closed once at $100, but never over that figure.
Warren Buffet gives the Fed the benefit of the doubt, but makes some interesting observations about the economy (and investing in general). Well worth a read.
UPDATE- ...And the next day, the Dow falls 315 points.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Project Truck Update - 15 Feb 2008
Been pretty busy and I haven't done much work on the truck as of late, but I've done a few things.
Thanks to my post at Stovebolt, I found another local Chevy/GMC truck enthusiast named Jake. He stopped by one day while I was working on the truck and helped me fix the headlights. He loved the truck and he said he had some extra parts that were taking up space in his attic. Jake offered them to me for free if I picked them up. So, it was off to the Northshore for an adventure!
Driving the truck for that long gave me a good feel for the truck. It just wants to go! It's fun to drive (although, after a while, it's tiring because of the lack of modern conveniences like A/C, power steering, disk brakes, etc.). The exhaust header's seal was also blown out, so the engine sounded like a infinitely long string of black cat fireworks going off. The cabin was filled with the smell of exhaust, thanks to all the holes in the firewall. Candice's parents also noticed a small oil leak from the truck and I responded, "my truck doesn't leak, it marks it's territory."
Candice followed me to the northshore. I joked she was the Bandit to my Smokey...
We made it to the northshore
My truck's first load...
The suspension is very stiff, which makes it handle great, but wears you down. The springs in the bed are oversized because any trucks built in '62 were going to be WORK trucks... This truck was built before people drove trucks to make a statement about themselves (and the size of their genitals). My truck was built when men were men, Democrats had balls, and computers took up rooms! Anyway, this truck isn't going to become a preening show truck. It's going to stay true to it's roots as a work truck. That's what it told me it wanted to be.
So I put the truck back to work...
...moving me out of the Quarter.
And then somebody broke into the garage I keep my truck in and tried to steal it!
No worries, though. The truck has an anti-theft device: being old and rusty! The carburetor is old and the choke is busted, so starting the engine when it's cold (i.e.- not run in a while) is VERY tricky. You need to smash on the gas pedal to near-flood the engine and crank it a few times, and then it will start. I could leave the keys in the ignition and it would be take someone else 15 minutes to start.
Next project was installing new exhaust headers on the driver's side:
The old exhaust system... No catalytic converter on this truck...
Here's what the engine looks like sans exhaust:
And, after lots of pulling and cursing, here's the new exhaust headers installed on the engine:
All nice and perdy
I unfortunately bent the dipstick tube while installing the header, so that'll need to be fixed/replaced.
I've also been keeping track of my spending and I'm coming in around $2,200 (including the truck, taxes, insurance, parts etc.) thus far.
Thanks to my post at Stovebolt, I found another local Chevy/GMC truck enthusiast named Jake. He stopped by one day while I was working on the truck and helped me fix the headlights. He loved the truck and he said he had some extra parts that were taking up space in his attic. Jake offered them to me for free if I picked them up. So, it was off to the Northshore for an adventure!
Driving the truck for that long gave me a good feel for the truck. It just wants to go! It's fun to drive (although, after a while, it's tiring because of the lack of modern conveniences like A/C, power steering, disk brakes, etc.). The exhaust header's seal was also blown out, so the engine sounded like a infinitely long string of black cat fireworks going off. The cabin was filled with the smell of exhaust, thanks to all the holes in the firewall. Candice's parents also noticed a small oil leak from the truck and I responded, "my truck doesn't leak, it marks it's territory."
Candice followed me to the northshore. I joked she was the Bandit to my Smokey...
We made it to the northshore
My truck's first load...
The suspension is very stiff, which makes it handle great, but wears you down. The springs in the bed are oversized because any trucks built in '62 were going to be WORK trucks... This truck was built before people drove trucks to make a statement about themselves (and the size of their genitals). My truck was built when men were men, Democrats had balls, and computers took up rooms! Anyway, this truck isn't going to become a preening show truck. It's going to stay true to it's roots as a work truck. That's what it told me it wanted to be.
So I put the truck back to work...
...moving me out of the Quarter.
And then somebody broke into the garage I keep my truck in and tried to steal it!
No worries, though. The truck has an anti-theft device: being old and rusty! The carburetor is old and the choke is busted, so starting the engine when it's cold (i.e.- not run in a while) is VERY tricky. You need to smash on the gas pedal to near-flood the engine and crank it a few times, and then it will start. I could leave the keys in the ignition and it would be take someone else 15 minutes to start.
Next project was installing new exhaust headers on the driver's side:
The old exhaust system... No catalytic converter on this truck...
Here's what the engine looks like sans exhaust:
And, after lots of pulling and cursing, here's the new exhaust headers installed on the engine:
All nice and perdy
I unfortunately bent the dipstick tube while installing the header, so that'll need to be fixed/replaced.
I've also been keeping track of my spending and I'm coming in around $2,200 (including the truck, taxes, insurance, parts etc.) thus far.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Hillary's gotta go...
NOTE- Some of this might be a little premature, but fuck it; I'm going ball to the wall...
Obama, McCain sweep. Obama's won 8 in a row. Hill didn't pull in more than 36% in any race (as of my writing).
That's it folks. We've got the Fall lineup here. Anything more is just belaboring the point.
Here are some of my thoughts:
* Huckabee did a commendable job towards the end. He's a genuinely likeable guy. Even Matt Taibbi was initially disarmed by him (not an easy task). Had he just raised a little more money, he could have defeated all the Washington insider candidates, no mean feat. He could still wind up causing major headaches for McCain if he stays in, but he'll probably accept the Veep slot and be content.
* McCain is deader than a deer in the headlights of an 18-wheeler when he faces Obama in the general election. He lost every election amongst the conservative base.+ He was dragged across the finish line by the moderate/liberal Republicans and Independents, NONE of whom will support him against Obama. McCain's biggest asset (media hard on for McCain) is totally neutralized by Obama and his biggest weaknesses (Iraq and his age) are exposed. It's going to be an ass-whupping of Reaganesque levels. He's going to be lucky to carry his home state.
* Hillary. Poor girl. I've never really liked her, but now that she's facing the firing squad, I feel sorry for her. Here's my take on her: she wanted to be a real reformer (as evidenced by Hillarycare). She was beaten down in brutal fashion for 10 years. She wanted to change things from the inside. She finally thought, 'hey, let me make a few compromises, sneak into office, and then I can change things from the inside.' She started giving lobbyists handjobs and before she knew it, she was taking on all of K-Street. And now, in the ultimate tragedy for her, she has to watch a younger candidate who made a point of not compromising on their principles (Iraq vote) and not accepting K-Street money (for the presidential campaign) come out of nowhere and grab the nomination by acclamation. It was her turn, but everyone turned on her and now she sees what she could have been reflected in Obama. That's why I feel so sorry for her.
* Obama's biggest threat, once Hillary is finally dragged off stage in tears, won't be McCain. It'll be the total mess left by Bush. Who wants to inherit a bankrupt, fucked up, militarily weakened, resource depleted ex-hegemon facing the reality of a multi-polar world? According to the Cunning Realist, Bush may have laid the perfect trap for the next president. "How many people cursed Nixon and Burns in '79?" How many will curse Bush in 4 years? His best hope, honestly, is the mess blows up in Bush's face in a way that cannot be denied before Bush leaves office.
+ I work in a fairly conservative office, so I think I know why he's had so many problems with the base. It comes down to 2 factors: the McCain/Bush/Kennedy Immigration Bill and his actions reaching across the aisle during the 2000-2006 domination of the levers of power. Republicans have respect for winners and competitive spirit. Republicans could have fallen in line with Rudy, had he just won. From 2000-2006, Republicans were talking about building a "permanent majority" in both houses, the judiciary, and the executive branch. The Dems were on Terri Shivo levels of life support. Total domination of the government. McCain's problem was when the Dems were on the verge of being crushed once and for all, he hesitated crushing their windpipe and instead tried being civil and statesman-like. By some twisted logic, he didn't 'want to win.' I wouldn't be too surprised if one "narrative" that emerges in the years ahead blames McCain for the collapse of the Republican party...
Obama, McCain sweep. Obama's won 8 in a row. Hill didn't pull in more than 36% in any race (as of my writing).
That's it folks. We've got the Fall lineup here. Anything more is just belaboring the point.
Here are some of my thoughts:
* Huckabee did a commendable job towards the end. He's a genuinely likeable guy. Even Matt Taibbi was initially disarmed by him (not an easy task). Had he just raised a little more money, he could have defeated all the Washington insider candidates, no mean feat. He could still wind up causing major headaches for McCain if he stays in, but he'll probably accept the Veep slot and be content.
* McCain is deader than a deer in the headlights of an 18-wheeler when he faces Obama in the general election. He lost every election amongst the conservative base.+ He was dragged across the finish line by the moderate/liberal Republicans and Independents, NONE of whom will support him against Obama. McCain's biggest asset (media hard on for McCain) is totally neutralized by Obama and his biggest weaknesses (Iraq and his age) are exposed. It's going to be an ass-whupping of Reaganesque levels. He's going to be lucky to carry his home state.
* Hillary. Poor girl. I've never really liked her, but now that she's facing the firing squad, I feel sorry for her. Here's my take on her: she wanted to be a real reformer (as evidenced by Hillarycare). She was beaten down in brutal fashion for 10 years. She wanted to change things from the inside. She finally thought, 'hey, let me make a few compromises, sneak into office, and then I can change things from the inside.' She started giving lobbyists handjobs and before she knew it, she was taking on all of K-Street. And now, in the ultimate tragedy for her, she has to watch a younger candidate who made a point of not compromising on their principles (Iraq vote) and not accepting K-Street money (for the presidential campaign) come out of nowhere and grab the nomination by acclamation. It was her turn, but everyone turned on her and now she sees what she could have been reflected in Obama. That's why I feel so sorry for her.
* Obama's biggest threat, once Hillary is finally dragged off stage in tears, won't be McCain. It'll be the total mess left by Bush. Who wants to inherit a bankrupt, fucked up, militarily weakened, resource depleted ex-hegemon facing the reality of a multi-polar world? According to the Cunning Realist, Bush may have laid the perfect trap for the next president. "How many people cursed Nixon and Burns in '79?" How many will curse Bush in 4 years? His best hope, honestly, is the mess blows up in Bush's face in a way that cannot be denied before Bush leaves office.
+ I work in a fairly conservative office, so I think I know why he's had so many problems with the base. It comes down to 2 factors: the McCain/Bush/Kennedy Immigration Bill and his actions reaching across the aisle during the 2000-2006 domination of the levers of power. Republicans have respect for winners and competitive spirit. Republicans could have fallen in line with Rudy, had he just won. From 2000-2006, Republicans were talking about building a "permanent majority" in both houses, the judiciary, and the executive branch. The Dems were on Terri Shivo levels of life support. Total domination of the government. McCain's problem was when the Dems were on the verge of being crushed once and for all, he hesitated crushing their windpipe and instead tried being civil and statesman-like. By some twisted logic, he didn't 'want to win.' I wouldn't be too surprised if one "narrative" that emerges in the years ahead blames McCain for the collapse of the Republican party...
Friday, February 8, 2008
China's been busy
While everyone on this side of the Pacific is concerned with Bush/the Economy/Briney Spears/Iraq, China has been busy, and not just in preparation for the Olympics.
On the military front:
China has built itself the 2nd largest submarine fleet in the world. Larger than Russia. Including quiet, nuclear powered and even a few boomers [ballistic missile submarines].
Gone out and outfitted a Russian aircraft carrier and named it the Shi Lang (the last Chinese emperor to invade Taiwan). The story of the Varyag is absolutely fascinating. It was bought by a front company while it was being scrapped by Ukrainians. The cover story was it was going to turned into a floating casino in Macao (despite the fact the harbor is too shallow for a deep draft vessel like a carrier). It then had a long, interesting journey across the globe (bypassing Macao) and ending up in China's largest naval shipyard, where it's been refitted and painted PLAN [Chinese navy] gray. Varyag-World has been covering this story in great detail for some time. If you liked reading Blind Man's Bluff, you'll love reading Varyag World. It's still being updated.
China, nervous about US military activity all around them, denies US navy ships shelter during storm.
Chinese interests are seeking to buy 3Com, one of the primary suppliers of US military secured-communications equipment. 3Com is just one of many companies the Chinese are taking an interest in.
On the environmental front:
China has passed the US as the most polluting country in the world.
The Yangtze River dolphin has gone extinct.
Beijing's smog has gotten so bad you can't see across the street. That'll look great on the Olympic broadcasts.
Speaking of the Olympics, athletes are bringing their own food because the Chinese food has so much steroids, the athletes will test positive from eating the chicken.
On the energy front:
China doubling oil tanker fleet. There are now so many oil tankers pulling up to China's coast, there aren't enough places for them to dock.
1 year ago, China became a net importer of coal. In December 2007 it imported 4.3 million tons of coal. The US is the "Saudi Arabia of coal" and 4.3 million tons would be 1/3 of monthly net exports.
China freezes energy prices in an attempt to deal with a severe diesel shortage. China has been subsidizing energy costs to the tune of $15.7 billion for their steel industry alone. Just imagine if Blanco told Krupp, 'we're going to pick up half the bill for your energy.' Krupp would have been here in a heartbeat. Just imagine the sort of unfair competitive advantage that gives Chinese companies...
On the economic front:
Speaking of competitive advantage, how's tortured slave labor for y'a? Up from your bootstraps you fat, lazy, unionized worker!
Major banks rescued by China's sovereign wealth fund. "The idea of China rushing to the rescue of the capitalist world seems so unlikely as to be unbelievable."
China's only going to do so much, though. They are quietly revaluing the yuan. Part of it is an effort to decouple from the US economy. Part of it is to fight inflation in the major cities that's fermenting unrest. Remember, runaway inflation was a factor in the Tienanmen Square protests.
Unlike the author of this what if scenario [Bush refuses to give up power in Jan '09 and Chinese invade], I don't think China's a threat to the US, but we're stupid not to pay attention to them. I think China's economy is going to overheat, pollution will get so bad not even Fox News could content the people, and the 4-2-1 problem will lead to a social security crisis that will put ours to shame will combine to lead China to focus more on internal problems than stepping up to take a leading role in a multi-polar world.
On the military front:
China has built itself the 2nd largest submarine fleet in the world. Larger than Russia. Including quiet, nuclear powered and even a few boomers [ballistic missile submarines].
Gone out and outfitted a Russian aircraft carrier and named it the Shi Lang (the last Chinese emperor to invade Taiwan). The story of the Varyag is absolutely fascinating. It was bought by a front company while it was being scrapped by Ukrainians. The cover story was it was going to turned into a floating casino in Macao (despite the fact the harbor is too shallow for a deep draft vessel like a carrier). It then had a long, interesting journey across the globe (bypassing Macao) and ending up in China's largest naval shipyard, where it's been refitted and painted PLAN [Chinese navy] gray. Varyag-World has been covering this story in great detail for some time. If you liked reading Blind Man's Bluff, you'll love reading Varyag World. It's still being updated.
China, nervous about US military activity all around them, denies US navy ships shelter during storm.
Chinese interests are seeking to buy 3Com, one of the primary suppliers of US military secured-communications equipment. 3Com is just one of many companies the Chinese are taking an interest in.
On the environmental front:
China has passed the US as the most polluting country in the world.
The Yangtze River dolphin has gone extinct.
Beijing's smog has gotten so bad you can't see across the street. That'll look great on the Olympic broadcasts.
Speaking of the Olympics, athletes are bringing their own food because the Chinese food has so much steroids, the athletes will test positive from eating the chicken.
On the energy front:
China doubling oil tanker fleet. There are now so many oil tankers pulling up to China's coast, there aren't enough places for them to dock.
1 year ago, China became a net importer of coal. In December 2007 it imported 4.3 million tons of coal. The US is the "Saudi Arabia of coal" and 4.3 million tons would be 1/3 of monthly net exports.
China freezes energy prices in an attempt to deal with a severe diesel shortage. China has been subsidizing energy costs to the tune of $15.7 billion for their steel industry alone. Just imagine if Blanco told Krupp, 'we're going to pick up half the bill for your energy.' Krupp would have been here in a heartbeat. Just imagine the sort of unfair competitive advantage that gives Chinese companies...
On the economic front:
Speaking of competitive advantage, how's tortured slave labor for y'a? Up from your bootstraps you fat, lazy, unionized worker!
Major banks rescued by China's sovereign wealth fund. "The idea of China rushing to the rescue of the capitalist world seems so unlikely as to be unbelievable."
China's only going to do so much, though. They are quietly revaluing the yuan. Part of it is an effort to decouple from the US economy. Part of it is to fight inflation in the major cities that's fermenting unrest. Remember, runaway inflation was a factor in the Tienanmen Square protests.
Unlike the author of this what if scenario [Bush refuses to give up power in Jan '09 and Chinese invade], I don't think China's a threat to the US, but we're stupid not to pay attention to them. I think China's economy is going to overheat, pollution will get so bad not even Fox News could content the people, and the 4-2-1 problem will lead to a social security crisis that will put ours to shame will combine to lead China to focus more on internal problems than stepping up to take a leading role in a multi-polar world.
Whack-A-Journalist
The current season of The Wire is all about the press' abdication of reposibility to society. Well, here are a couple examples that have been a pebble in my shoe:
Journalists are drooling morons when it comes to science stories. I'll bet there aren't 2 writers and NO editor on any newspaper staff in the country that can explain ANY of the 3 following terms: the Scientific Method, the Second Law of Thermodynamics, a Gaussian distribution.
Here are some journalists showing some balls. Oops. Sorry. 60 Minutes chickened out at the last minute.
This one I hesitate to even mention, because even bad journalists aren't this bad. Don't betray your heritage by voting for Barak "Muslim Fundamentalist" Obama Someone actually published this bullshit. They later retracted it, but the damage was done. I have a suggestion for Obama: finance the rest of your campaign with winnings from libel lawsuits. There are dumb people with so much money lying around it's a fire hazard. Do them a favor and take some of it off their hands.
Bad Journalist!
You write poop, you deserve a mouthful of it!
Journalists are drooling morons when it comes to science stories. I'll bet there aren't 2 writers and NO editor on any newspaper staff in the country that can explain ANY of the 3 following terms: the Scientific Method, the Second Law of Thermodynamics, a Gaussian distribution.
Here are some journalists showing some balls. Oops. Sorry. 60 Minutes chickened out at the last minute.
This one I hesitate to even mention, because even bad journalists aren't this bad. Don't betray your heritage by voting for Barak "Muslim Fundamentalist" Obama Someone actually published this bullshit. They later retracted it, but the damage was done. I have a suggestion for Obama: finance the rest of your campaign with winnings from libel lawsuits. There are dumb people with so much money lying around it's a fire hazard. Do them a favor and take some of it off their hands.
Bad Journalist!
You write poop, you deserve a mouthful of it!
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Sleepwalking into the next energy crisis...
I've done a lot of work for the energy sector and ever since reading The Prize, I have taken a keen interest in oil-related events. Oil is the fuel that drives everything we do. 95% or so of transportation fuels come from oil. Without it, trains, planes, and automobiles (even smugly-driven Prius) grind to a halt. People have no idea of the importance of a single gallon of gas (500 man hours of labor) and how CHEAP it still is (less than 20 cents a cup; a fraction of what your morning frapa-whacka-chino costs).
The first target of everyone's ire is the Oil Majors. Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and ConnocoPhilips are refered to as the International Oil Companies (IOC's for short) within industry. This is who Joe Blow sees whenever on the sign when he fills up hisDoublewideTrailer with 22" rims SUV. What he doesn't understand is less than half the oil he's about to pump comes from the IOC's. The other half comes from Nationalized Oil Companies (NOC's) like Saudi Aramco, Mexico's PEMEX, Venesuela's PDVSA, or Norway's StatOil/NorskHydro. In order to provide the consumer with enough gasoline, the IOC's have to buy from the NOC's (at retail prices). Because the consumer is such a cheap bastard when it comes to buying gas (people will drive all over town to save a nickel), the price of gas hasn't kept up with the rise in crude oil prices. In addition to SEC regulation preventing exploration and production divisions of IOC's from sharing profits with refining divisions, the oil companies are getting crunched. BP is cutting 5,000 jobs.
Everyone's eyes widen when they hear Exxon makes more than $1,000 a second in profits, but what they don't see is the oil industry is the most capital intensive business out there. The capital costs are so high, you damn well better be making lots of money!
The most serious threat to the IOC's, IMO, is the critical shortage of talent. Personnel costs have skyrocketed. Most new wells are extremely deep (15,000+ feet) and need weeks to drill at rates upwards of $250,000 a day. Drilling costs doubled from 2003-2006, driven largely by personnel costs. It's hard, but not impossible, to get your hands on a drilling rig. Keeping it fully staffed with experienced crews running 24/7 is damned near impossible. Salaries have exploded as a result. Houston, the energy capital of the world, has become a town of mercenaries; people just leave after 3 months because they get an extra $1.50 an hour. That's been going on for the past 2-3 years now and salaries are up 50-100%. For the companies, it's only going to get worse. I can't find it now, but I remember reading that 50% of one of the IOC's geology and engineering staff will be eligible to retire by December 2009. New projects get more and more complicated with fewer and fewer engineers to work on them. Demand for engineers is going up 40% per year with no end in sight. Just imagine how desperate companies are going to get to retain talent then. It's great for individuals, but it's sapping the industry's ability to get shit done. Projects keep missing deadline after deadline.
All the efforts of oil companies can't even replace the oil they're pumping. The oil companies are running flat out just to stay in place, and even then they are slowly sliding backwards on the treadmill. Chevron only replaced 10-20% of its reserves last year. If that doesn't change, then Chevron (and all the other IOC's) will eventually cease to exist.
Well, what about Saudi Arabia? Aren't they sitting on oceans of the stuff? No, even Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are limited (and might be more limited than anyone thinks). Our idiot president accidentally (or not?) dropped Saudi Arabia's biggest secret on national TV and nobody in the press was smart enough to realize what he was saying...
The US is slowly but surely heading into an energy crisis that will put the 70's oil embargos to shame. It's been coming for 50 years and, though quite a few people have known about it, little has been done to prepare. This nation hasn't had a coherent energy policy since the Carter administration. Well, one way or the other, the next president will have an energy policy that reduces American dependence on oil.
NOTE- The last real oil shock happened before I was born. I only know a little about the oil bust that hit the energy sector in the early 80's. Anyone got any memories of the 70's oil embargo's? I'd love to hear them. Everyone I've talked to seems to have blocked them out of their memory...
The first target of everyone's ire is the Oil Majors. Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and ConnocoPhilips are refered to as the International Oil Companies (IOC's for short) within industry. This is who Joe Blow sees whenever on the sign when he fills up his
Everyone's eyes widen when they hear Exxon makes more than $1,000 a second in profits, but what they don't see is the oil industry is the most capital intensive business out there. The capital costs are so high, you damn well better be making lots of money!
The most serious threat to the IOC's, IMO, is the critical shortage of talent. Personnel costs have skyrocketed. Most new wells are extremely deep (15,000+ feet) and need weeks to drill at rates upwards of $250,000 a day. Drilling costs doubled from 2003-2006, driven largely by personnel costs. It's hard, but not impossible, to get your hands on a drilling rig. Keeping it fully staffed with experienced crews running 24/7 is damned near impossible. Salaries have exploded as a result. Houston, the energy capital of the world, has become a town of mercenaries; people just leave after 3 months because they get an extra $1.50 an hour. That's been going on for the past 2-3 years now and salaries are up 50-100%. For the companies, it's only going to get worse. I can't find it now, but I remember reading that 50% of one of the IOC's geology and engineering staff will be eligible to retire by December 2009. New projects get more and more complicated with fewer and fewer engineers to work on them. Demand for engineers is going up 40% per year with no end in sight. Just imagine how desperate companies are going to get to retain talent then. It's great for individuals, but it's sapping the industry's ability to get shit done. Projects keep missing deadline after deadline.
All the efforts of oil companies can't even replace the oil they're pumping. The oil companies are running flat out just to stay in place, and even then they are slowly sliding backwards on the treadmill. Chevron only replaced 10-20% of its reserves last year. If that doesn't change, then Chevron (and all the other IOC's) will eventually cease to exist.
Well, what about Saudi Arabia? Aren't they sitting on oceans of the stuff? No, even Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are limited (and might be more limited than anyone thinks). Our idiot president accidentally (or not?) dropped Saudi Arabia's biggest secret on national TV and nobody in the press was smart enough to realize what he was saying...
The US is slowly but surely heading into an energy crisis that will put the 70's oil embargos to shame. It's been coming for 50 years and, though quite a few people have known about it, little has been done to prepare. This nation hasn't had a coherent energy policy since the Carter administration. Well, one way or the other, the next president will have an energy policy that reduces American dependence on oil.
NOTE- The last real oil shock happened before I was born. I only know a little about the oil bust that hit the energy sector in the early 80's. Anyone got any memories of the 70's oil embargo's? I'd love to hear them. Everyone I've talked to seems to have blocked them out of their memory...
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