Tuesday, June 5, 2007

What I think/hope will happen with $Bill

What's going to happen with the Dollar Bill Indictment? Here's my best guess/hope:

> The Feds want his ass. They have put together a mountain of evidence against him. Way more than they needed. But, they only scratched the surface on his schemes. It will be very interesting to see what happens with the rest of Jefferson's Progressive Democrats/family.

> Jefferson isn't about to resign. Also, he's many things but he isn't dumb. People were like, 'what sort of an idiot would store marked bill in his freezer?' Well, it had nothing to do with idiocy. He has been getting away with shakedowns like this since BEFORE I WAS BORN!!! After a while, you just get complacent. He also didn't think anyone would ever have the balls to go after him, given the network he's set up over the years.

> The network. Oh boy. The "Progressive Democrats" (PD's) and family members. These people are about as dedicated to Dollar Bill as the Mahdi Army is to Muqtada al-Sadr. They will defend him to the last. More importantly, they'll make sure nobody stabs him in the back. For example, let's suppose Nagin were to come out against Dollar Bill. Eddie Jordan would immediately take a keen interest in garbage contracts and Greg Meffert's actions at city hall... There are many more DB-supporters scattered all over Louisiana willing to watch his back. The Feds need to take as many of them down as possible, or else the prosecution will be in vain.

> The money. Dollar Bill has been hurting for cash. His defense fund is thin, he's deep in debt, and the Feds are watching, so he can't raise money by his preferred means [freezers full of bribe money].

> The Congressional Black Caucus. The big wildcard. They supported Dollar Bill in his reelection last fall. They sent down many staffers that manned his operations, but they were a bit underwhelming in their cash contributions. We'll see what they do.

> The defense. Yell all day and all night about Bush, Gonzalez and race. And you know what, that will resonate with a lot of people for a long time. It will serve as a huge distraction, but it will only do so much. Bush doesn't give a damn about his legacy or his own party (look at the immigration bill). He's burned all bridges and he's living on his own little island, where he occasionally lobs artillery shells back to the mainland. This round has Jefferson's name all over it and there's no stopping it. Also, the thin defense fund really ties Jefferson's hands behind his back. The Feds know this.

> A plea deal. If he had a huge defense fund, Jefferson could plead down and accept a deal that kept a lot of his network and family members out of the slammer, but he has no leverage with the Feds. As long as his legal defense fund remains empty, he's fucked with a capital F. The best plea deal he's going to get is going to be double-digit years, probably no less than 20 years in prison.

My guess is Dollar Bill won't resign. He won't accept a plea deal. He's going to drag this thing on for YEARS. It'll be a PR-nightmare for South Louisiana. My only hope is he drags this thing to trial and half of the political class gets indicted as co-conspirators. Eddie Jordan, C. Ray Nagin, Harry Lee (that endorsement gets more suspicious every time I look at it), the Cynthias, Derrek Shephard, and company could all end up with their own little legal problems. They'd play the role of the dinosaurs, the feds play the role of the meteorite, and the little, honest guys (like John Kennedy) would play the role of the mammals. Once the dino's die, the mammals take over!

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